There is little doubt that the recent sweep of both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives make it more likely that immigration reform will be enacted by Congress in the next two years. The question is really: when will it occur and how many undocumented immigrants will benefit under its terms? Certainly, there is now greater hope than at any time since September 11th that undocumented immigrants will have a way to legalize their status in the United States.
To understand this situation better it is appropriate to consider what occurred earlier this year in Congress on the subject of immigration reform. In May of this year, after a long fight, the Senate of the United States approved a comprehensive immigration reform bill, which provided for persons who were out of status to legalize provided that they had an employer-sponsor and met other conditions. After six years, they would be eligible for permanent residence, provided that they continued to have a job, paid their back taxes and learned English.
This bill also contained the following additional positive elements:
- Increased numbers of professional visas (H1B visas) for employers
- increased immigrant employment-based visas to help alleviate the immense backlog that exists
- a reasonable guest worker provision for companies that have hard to fill non-professional positions
However, the Senate bill never went to the House of Representatives for consideration. The leadership of the House of Representatives was adamantly opposed to the legalization elements of the bill, claiming it amounted to amnesty.
Now, the key Republicans who blocked passage of the bill in the House are no longer in control. The Chairman of the Immigration subcommittee, Rep. James Sensenbrenner – an enemy of any expansion of immigrant rights in this country – will be simply an ordinary member of the House, and his party will be in the minority, starting in January. The current Speaker of the House and Majority leader, both of whom opposed legalization of undocumented immigrants, will no longer hold their positions come January. These republicans who blocked consideration of immigration reform this year will no longer have any real control over legislation considered by Congress next year.
Instead, the House Speaker will be Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, who supported the immigration reform bill passed by the Senate. The Immigration subcommittee of the House will undoubtedly be led by someone who supported immigration reform – very possibly by one of four House Democrats on the subcommittee. With a majority of over 20 votes, there is a good chance the full House would approve the same bill which passed the Senate in May.
Of course, the bill must be re-introduced in the Senate as well. However, the Republicans who largely opposed immigration reform have lost six seats and control of the Senate as well. This means that control of legislation in the Senate will also be in the hands of Democrats who generally favor immigration reform. The Judiciary Committee of the Senate will now be controlled by Democrats who supported the reform bill and they will likely approve it and send it to the whole Senate for consideration. When it reaches debate in the full Senate, immigration reform will have better prospects of passage than this year. At least several of the Republicans who lost their bids for re-election to the Senate – Sen. Talent of Missouri, Sen. Burns of Montana, Sen. Allen of Virginia and Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania – were opposed to immigration reform and were replaced by Democrats who will likely support it. The pro-reform group should easily be able to find the 51 votes necessary for its passage.
The final step toward approval is the signature of the President. President Bush has encouraged passage of immigration reform including legalization of undocumented immigrants. As such, it is highly doubtful that he will oppose such a bill if it resembles the law passed by the Senate this May.
In short, the likelihood of immigration reform in the next 24 months is much greater since the election results have given the Democrats control of Congress. This includes a path to permanent residence for undocumented immigrants.
The problem is that, with other important issues such as raising the minimum wage, prescription drug laws, environmental legislation, and most of all, the war in Iraq occupying the attention of Congress, no one can say when the Senate and the House will each address the issue of immigration reform again.
Persons here out of status will still have some months to wait before they will be able to start down any road to permanent residence, which so far does not even exist as proposed legislation in the U.S. Congress.
Back to New Dvelopments
WARNING: The following is article
discussing legal issues. It is not intended to be a substitute
for legal advice. We recommend that you get competent legal
advice specific to your case. If you would like such advice
from our office, call (415) 777-4445 or (916) 349-2900 or
(408) 993-9737.
|
